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Inside this issue
TBS Research Team

An eventful year has gone by. The New Year appeared amid uncertainties, – carried over from the preceding year and emerging. But there are prospects too. The world is no longer in a recession mode and inflation is easing in most countries. But worries remain with wars in two fronts – trade sanctions in place and looming and trade disputes unresolved. Issues like labour standards, environmental compliance are getting louder. Extreme weather events are more frequent now than ever before. As is for Bangladesh, 2024 is an election year for more than 70 countries, including India and Indonesia in the neighbourhood as well as the USA. The new governments around the globe have many things to watch out in the New Year, some may be beyond their control, but most can be addressed or prevented by themselves. Economic Intelligence has picked some of the issues under the topic: What to Watch in 2024 for Bangladesh.

New skills will rule the future job markets – both local and global. Many jobs are diminishing, many are emerging. The transformation is taking place so rapidly that businesses and industries are rethinking their investment in human capital to have the skills they require the most. There are talks on how much of human jobs will be lost to machines, what advanced skills training the workforce will need to stay relevant for future jobs, what will be the private and public policy responses to fast-reconfiguring labour markets. Based on global survey, our research team throws light on these issues in the topic: What Lies Ahead for Global Jobs & Skills, 2023-2027.

The next topic – What’s Weaving in the Global Apparel Economy – looks at how our major competitors in the apparel export market are preparing themselves for a tougher future. They are investing in technologies and infrastructures, signing bilateral and regional trade deals, upgrading workers’ skills and taking care of environment to comply with European Green Deal. These, we think, will be an eye-opener for our apparel industry which is now facing deeper stress than ever before in issues such as labour rights and environment amid rising costs and falling orders.

The third topic deals with one of the most concerning issues for our economy as we rely almost entirely on imports to meet our needs for these products. Any upheaval in the world commodity market means supply disruptions and price hikes of items such as wheat, petrol or cotton required for our households and industries. Factors that cause global market volatility are omnipresent, as if programmed in an unseen calendar, coming one after another—once it is pandemic, then war and sanctions, with more waiting. In this topic, Global Commodity Price Forecasts, our research team has analysed global forecasts and tried to understand the market trend, which our importers and exporters may find useful.

Our next topic looks at consumers and business confidence in the world’s largest markets – EU and USA, which is very relevant for us, our export industries in particular, as they ship nearly two-thirds of their merchandise to these destinations. High inflation in Europe and America is not a concern for their peoples alone, it greatly matters to our businesses, too, as a slump in demand there means a loss in business for our exporters, potential decline in foreign exchange earnings and employment. This is what The Pessimistic State of Big Markets tries to explore.

We also need to know how our partner economies are doing. Here we have selected six of our key partners in global trade in the Partner Economies Outlook chapter.

Finally, in the topic, Bangladesh Macroeconomic Snapshot, our readers will have an overview of our economy based on the latest available data.

WHAT TO WATCH IN 2024 FOR BANGLADESH

INSIGHTS BY TBS RESEARCH TEAM BASED ON AVAILABLE DATA AND EXPERTS’ VIEWS
1
High inflasion
High Inflation
2
dollar crisis
Dollar Crisis
3
Energy Security Concerns
Energy Security Concerns
4
Debt Obligation Banking Finance Loan Money Concept
Rising External Debt
5
Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical Tensions
6
Political Uncertainty
Political Uncertainty
7
Global Economic Slowdown
Global Economic Slowdown
8
Climate Change
Climate Change
9
Researcher takes a probe of green plant and puts it in a Petri d
Food Security Concerns
10
Water Scarcity
Water Scarcity
11
Air Pollution
Air Pollution

Fastest Growing Jobs

Fastest Growing Jobs

Fastest Declining Jobs

Fastest Declining Jobs
chart-image

TOP 10 SKILLS ON THE RISE

SHARE OF COMPANIES SURVEYED WHICH CONSIDER SKILLS TO BE INCREASING IN IMPORTANCE MOST RAPIDLY BETWEEN 2023 AND 2027
Cognitive skills
Technological skills
Self-efficacy
Management skills
Engagement skills
CREATIVE THINKING
73.2%
ANALYTICAL THINKING
71.6%
TECHNOLOGICAL LITERACY
67.7%
CURIOSITY AND LIFELONG LEARNING
66.8%
RESILIENCE, FLEXIBILITY AND AGILITY
65.8%
SYSTEMS THINKING
59.9%
AI AND BIG DATA
59.5%
MOTIVATION AND SELF-AWARENESS
58.9%
TALENT MANAGEMENT
56.4%
SERVICE ORIENTATION AND CUSTOMER SERVICE
54.8%
human-machine-frontier

HUMAN-MACHINE FRONTIER

PROPORTION OF TASKS COMPLETED BY HUMANS VS MACHINES

Machine
Human
2022
34%
66%
2027
43%
57%

AS BUSINESSES ADOPT FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES, TASKS SUCH AS INFORMATION AND DATA PROCESSING ARE INCREASINGLY AUTOMATED, RECONFIGURING LABOUR MARKETS AND CHANGING THE SKILLS NEEDED FOR WORK

BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION, 2023-2027

Share of companies surveyed expecting these factors will limit the transformation of their business

Skills gaps in the local labour market
59.7%
Inability to attract talent
53.4%
Outdated or inflexible regulatory framework
41.9%
Skills gaps among the organization’s leadership
37.3%
Shortage of investment capital
37.2%
Insufficient understanding of opportunities
32.6%

Organizations identify skills gaps and an inability to attract talent as the key barriers preventing industry transformation, with 60% of surveyed companies highlighting the difficulty in bridging skills gaps locally and 53% identifying their inability to attract talent as the main barriers to transforming their business

WORKFORCE
STRATEGIES,
2023-2027

Share of companies
surveyed planning to
adopt these workforce
strategies

Invest in learning and training on the job
81.2%
Accelerate the automation of processes
80.0%
Transition existing staff from declining to growing roles
45.5%
Outsource significant areas of work
21.5%
Expand the use of contract work
24.3%
Hire significantly more permanent staff
22.4%
Reduce the current workforce significantly
12.8%

By a wide margin,
surveyed companies
report that investing
in learning and
training on the job
and automating
processes are the most
common workforce
strategies which will be
adopted to deliver
their organization’s
business goals in the
next five years

PUBLIC
POLICIES TO
ENHANCE
ACCESS TO
TALENT,
2023-2027

Share of companies
surveyed that identify these
public policies as promising
ways to increase talent
availability

Funding for reskilling and upskilling
45.0%
Flexibility on hiring and firing practices
33.3%
Tax and other incentives for companies to improve wages
32.9%
Improvements to school systems
30.5%
Changes to immigration laws on foreign talent
27.6%
Flexibility on setting wages
24.2%

Businesses see
funding for skills
training as the
most effective
governmental
intervention for
connecting talent
to employment

SOURCE

World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs Report 2023

NOTE

The Future of Jobs Survey brings together the perspective of 803 companies – collectively employing more than 11.3 million workers – across 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from all world regions

country-map
China
Vietnam
India
Cambodia
Turkey

GLOBAL

COMMODITY

PRICE FORECASTS

As of 10 Nov 2023

WHEAT

USD/bushel
wheat

COTTON

USD/pound
cotton

SOYBEAN OIL

USD/pound
soybean oil

BRENT CRUDE OIL

USD/barrel
crude oil

IRON ORE (separate)

USD/dry tonne
iron orefines

GOLD

USD/troy ounce
gold

Source: Median forecasts data from JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Commerzbank AG, Citigroup Inc, Standard Chartered Bank, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and others.

The-pessimistic-state

To-save-or-spend

How-do-business-think
money signs

PARTNER ECONOMIES’ OUTLOOK

BANGLADESH’S TOP
EXPORTING DESTINATIONS

illus-1

BANGLADESH’S TOP IMPORT
SOURCING COUNTRIES

illus-2

BANGLADESH’S TOP EXPORTING
DESTINATIONS

illus-3

BANGLADESH’S TOP IMPORT
SOURCING COUNTRIES

illus-4

BANGLADESH’S TOP EXPORTING
DESTINATIONS

illus-5

BANGLADESH’S TOP IMPORT
SOURCING COUNTRIES

illus-6

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2023

Bangladesh-Microeconomic-snapshot
Roaring inflation
Trade deficit
Revenue grows
Gross forex
ADP implementation
Remitence inflows
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